Americans continue to well react! Americans continue to well react, as demonstrated by the developments in monetary aggregates figures on January, 14: they increase less savings because their economic situation is good and they anticipate an improvement. The increase in M2-M1, which was at 8.5% (year on year) in late August 2007… decreases: it is

Free money supply and growth Part 1: M3 free money supply The variation of the real GDP growth rate is inversely proportional to that of the free money supply which is the difference between the increase of M3, the money supply in current data and (less) the growth rate of the real GDP. In fact the variations of this free money supply are important

Bad The latest figures published yesterday by the Fed are bad: M2-M1 rose by 8% (year o year) since 2 weeks, Chart 1: (Click here to enlarge the graph) The stocks market collapse, which was amplified during the week on January, 21 (with Société Générale) prompted Americans to reduce their consumption expenditure to increase their savings becaus

Reversal of trend? Americans increased their savings to $ 47.4 billion in the week ending January 28, which is significant because an increase of this magnitude occurred only once previously in history: in the week after September 11, 2001 with $ 51 billion, Chart 1: (Click here to enlarge the graph) $ 47.4 billion had not been spent, as less sales

Confirmation of my analyses… The latest figures released by the Fed on January, 31 (and those of the GDP growth) confirm my previous analyses: the increase in the aggregate M2-M1 is slightly less than 7% (from one year to another) on January 21, which means that real GDP growth is 3.5% (year on year) in the beginning of this year, i.e. at its opt

American growth at 2.5%! The rate of real GDP growth in fourth quarter 2007 was at 2.5% year on year, exactly in line with what I predicted under my law on free money supply: the free real GDP growth varies with the inverse of the variance of the free money supply, Chart 1: (Click here to enlarge the graph) This law operates from variations in rate

The age of turbulence The latest figures yesterday published by the Fed are worse than those of the previous week: Americans increased their savings of $ 40 billion compared with the previous week, and especially to $ 127 billion over the last 4 weeks ending February 11. It's worse than last August at the height of the subprime crisis. It is worse

Globalization balances Once again, good old Alan Greenspan is right: the balances must be considered and implemented now at the level of nations and financial institutions taking into account the global balances, which is a little trickier than the time he chaired the Fed ... He addressed this problem in his book, The age of turbulence, particularl

B-2’s beautiful Christmas gift! B-2 (the Northrop Grumman B-2 Spirit, also known as the Stealth Bomber ), Ben Bernanke , offered a really nice Christmas gift to the Americans and the world! Indeed, yields Notes reached their low point on 17 and December 18 (the 10-year at 2.08% and the 2-year at 0.66%) after the surprise drop rates by the Fed at

Productivity and growth American companies increase their sales (GDP increases normally at 3.5%), but they do not create jobs. Overall they have even removed 17,000 in January including over 50,000 in the manufacturing sector. Productivity gains are now very high in the United States, as in August 2003 when 48,000 jobs cut. Productivity gains peake